Tuesday November 17, 2009
Ousted Honduran President has said that he will not accept any return to the Presidency if it is to "cover" for the coup that deposed him some months ago. Last week, he signed a US-brokered agreement with the interim government. Apparently the document was vaguely worded. Zelaya thought it required Congress to vote on his reinstatement within a certain time frame. It failed to do so, and the Honduran Congress and Supreme Court have been dragging their heels getting together to sort out the whole mess. It seems the signed agreement does NOT specify any dates for votes and recommendations, and the interim government, while sidelining Zelaya, has stated that it is adhering strictly to the wording of the agreement. Zelaya, frustrated and still facing charges of violating the Honduran Constitution, has written an open letter to US president Obama declaring that he no longer wants to return to the Presidency as it might legitimize the coup. It's a little late for this sort of reverse psychology: the interim government obviously never had any intention of returning him to power and the elections are scheduled to go forward in two weeks. The US government has promised to recognize the elections if the agreement was followed by both sides, and apparently US diplomats and legal experts still believe that there has been no legal violation of the agreement so far. Zelaya's past is coming back to haunt him: during his Presidency, he cultivated friendships with leaders openly critical of the US, such as Venezuela's Hugo Chavez. He also joined Honduras to the Bolivarian Alliance for the Americas, a Chavez-sponsored alliance which seeks to reduce US influence in the Americas. And then he asks President Obama to help put him back in power? One can only hope that Zelaya sees the irony in that.
Saturday November 14, 2009
May, 1819: the War for South American Independence has ground to a standstill as warlords loyal to Spain, the cause of liberty, or themselves battle in Venezuela. Simon Bolivar sees opportunity in neighboring New Granada (now Colombia) where an unhappy population is watched over by a token Spanish force. If he can get there, he can deal the Spanish a mortal blow. In his way: rain-swollen rivers, flooded plains and the icy heights of the mighty Andes Mountains. Bolivar's epic crossing of the Andes has become a legend in northern South America.
Tuesday November 10, 2009
Brazil is on the other side of the globe from the troubled Middle East. Why, then, are diplomats from Iran and Israel coming to Brasilia this week? Brazil, under the gentle leadership of President Lula da Silva, is becoming a leader in world diplomacy. As the nation gains economic strength, Lula has gained great international prestige as a negotiator and diplomat. Iran wants recognition from Brazil as a legitimate government with the right to nuclear weapons, whereas Israel wants Brazil's support in marginalizing the Ahmadinejad administration. It will be interesting to see Lula's reaction: stay tuned!
Friday November 6, 2009
(Ex?) President of Honduras Manuel Zelaya angrily declared the accord that might have returned him to power "dead" yesterday after a deadline passed without his reinstatement. Last week, both sides signed an agreement brokered by the USA which would have allowed the Honduran Congress to vote on his reinstatement. In exchange, the international community would recognize the upcoming November elections. Zelaya signed, apparently because he had a back-room deal in place to secure the congressional votes he needed. Unfortunately, he didn't read the fine print. The agreement states that Congress must first ask the Supreme Court for its opinion, then vote, but no timetable is given. It also states that a "unity" government must be in place by Thursday, November 5. Zelaya took this to mean that Congress must vote by then, but the two provisions are apparently legally unrelated. So the November 5 deadline passed without Zelaya nominating anyone to the unity government, as he was angry that Congress (which does not want him back) was dragging its heels asking the Supreme Court (which wants him back even less) for its opinion. Meanwhile, the unity government was set up as interim leaders innocently claimed that they had to do it and since they heard nothing from Zelaya, they did it without him. So now, the interim government has followed the letter of the agreement it signed, but has left Zelaya out of the unity government. Additionally, there appears to be nothing to force the Congress and Supreme Court to meet any time soon, which will allow them to "run out the clock" until a new election. If Zelaya is reinstated after a general election, his power will be negligible with an incumbent set to take over in a question of weeks.